天津体育学院学报

引入政策情景分析视角，运用系统动力学理论和方法，构建青少年体育培训市场发展系统模型，探究“双减”政策背景下不同政策情景对青少年体育培训市场的作用路径及影响效果。在“双减”政策驱动下，青少年体育培训市场规模持续扩大，配套政策未能适应青少年体育培训市场的高速发展节奏，一定程度上阻碍了行业高质量发展。其中，单一政策产生的作用效果为“政府购买体育服务>税收优惠>科技引领>政府投入>准入政策”。从短期来看，实施“准入政策+税收优惠+政府购买体育服务”的政策组合，能有效缓解“双减”政策下因需求激增导致青少年体育培训市场行业失序、资源供需失衡等突出问题；从长远看，同时实施五套不同类型的政策效果较优，政策之间的互补性更强，覆盖面更广。因此，建议推进体育教育评价改革，引导市场良性发展；提高学校体育质量，协同构建课后服务；优化监管政策体系，严格规范体育培训；系统规划帮扶政策，创新市场发展模式。

This study constructed a system model of youth sports training market development from the perspective of policy scenario analysis based on the system dynamics theory to explore the paths and effects of different policy scenarios on the youth sports training market in the background of the "double reduction" policy in China.Results suggested that the youth sports training market expanded continuously driven by the double reduction, but supporting policies failed to adapt to the rapid development of the youth sports training market,which restricts the high-quality development of the youth sports training market.Moreover,the effect of the single policy is different,with the government purchase of sports services largest,tax incentives,technology guidance,and government investment taking the second to fourth and access policy the smallest.The implementation of the policy combination of access policy,tax incentives,and government purchase of sports services can effectively alleviate key problems such as industry disorder and imbalance of supplydemand of resources in the youth sports training market in a short time caused by the rapid increase of training demand.However,to improve the complementarity and coverage of policies,the implementation of five sets of different types of policies was needed.Therefore,promoting the reform of physical education evaluation to guide the healthy development of the market,collaborative construction of after-school services,optimizing the regulatory policy system to strictly regulate sports training,and systematically planning supported policies to innovate market development should be considered to promote the development of the youth sports training market.